The news that Russia has reached out to China for military and economic support has sent shockwaves across the world. What is going on? Is this simply a way in which Vladimir Putin is forcing Xi Jinping to take a more direct and public stance with respect to the Russian war in Ukraine – i.e., making the partnership agreed to in February a credible and material commitment rather than simply fraternal “cheap talk” – or does it imply that Russia is in real need?
If the former, there is a dangerous “you are either with us or against us” aspect that would force China off the fence and most definitely tip it into the direct “aiding and abetting” an unjustified invasion camp. There is no indication that this would sit comfortably with the Chinese government, which is ever conscious of its public image and is still consumed with its Covid response. In addition, the last thing China wants is to spook both the United States and its Asian neighbours into a fast paced and significant upgrading of military capabilities in the Far East. Part of the Chinese approach to diplomacy historically has been to appear anti-imperialist (even holding observer position in the Non-Aligned Movement). If this is the point of the request, there is no doubt it will not be received very comfortably in Beijing.
The more interesting conclusion is that Russia is in real trouble. The invasion has not gone to plan, and material is being consumed at a rapid rate. The world has reacted swiftly and forcefully and has the potential to cause very significant harm to the Russian economy and its people, creating a real threat to Putin’s leadership if it persists and spins out of control. In this circumstance, Putin needs not just real support but a counterbalance to the economic power of the nations aligned against it. And the only alternative in this case is China. Banned from Swift and without access to the Visa/Mastercard payment system, Russia can turn to Union Pay and Chinese banks. The withdrawal of major Western technology and industrial companies opens alternatives for Russia, as China has manufacturing capability with respect to pretty much every area of modern industry – from cars to computer systems to aircraft and medicines. The closure of retail and consumer operations simply opens up major opportunities for Chinese firms willing – and incentivized by the Chinese government – to step in. If Russia goes ahead with threats to confiscate Western company assets, this process can be accelerated with ready-made infrastructure. All of it could, of course, be financed as a sort of Belt and Road on steroids.
For every threat there is an opportunity. For every cost a benefit. It may be true, as some argue, that there are real meaningful costs to China’s “no limits” partnership with Russia. However, much of this is based on Russia being in the driving seat in the relationship. This may no longer be the case as Russian fortunes change. While not a total parallel, one needs to remember that in the 1920s and early 1930s, Hitler looked to Mussolini for support and guidance. As time went on, and Mussolini’s military escapades didn’t work out quite as he expected, the relationship changed with the Mussolini’s Italy becoming an effective vassal to Hitler’s Reich. Communist Russia viewed Communist China as a child to be minded in the early decades of the People’s Republic. Now, as the child has become a full-fledged and powerful economic adult, the heirs of the Soviet Union may just find themselves dependent in ways they could never have foreseen.
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