These are difficult and trying times. People are ill. People are suffering and dying. The press and others pile concerns and complaints on government and corporations for their responses, or lack of response. Yet, what is amazing is how orderly government and corporate mandated shutdowns and quarantines have worked, at least in the developed world and up to this point. Supply chains have continued to operate. For the most part, medical systems have operated although at times stretched to their very limits. There have been no large-scale bankruptcies that would potentially start an economic contagion effect the exacerbate the public health emergency.
A lot of the social and economic resiliency is related to people doing what is the right and appropriate thing. However, we sometimes lose sight of what might have happened had this virus struck 20 years ago and how much different things might be. In this sense, timing has helped ease the burden. Some of the differences are mundane but potentially related to how people use their time.
20 years ago, there was no Zoom. In fact, even systems such as Facetime did not exist until 2010. Working from home would have been well-nigh impossible. High speed fibre broadband did not exist. Companies did not use secure cloud-based systems or VPNs but relied on internal systems connected directly. You would either have to work from the office or not work except on tasks that did not rely on anything more sophisticated than email. The end result is that the quarantine would be so much more economically damaging as to be unimaginable.
This can be seen the standpoint of students in high schools and universities. Myself and my colleagues around the globe have fairly easily moved into online mode. Lectures can be recorded or streamed. Group work can be handled readily, many assignments submitted as normal via systems such as Canvas and Blackboard and presentations done online. While some aspects of the teaching and learning function have suffered and will continue to suffer, 20 years ago the universities and schools would simply have had to shut down with almost no options to continue study or continue and finalize assessment. To put things in perspective, Coursera did not exist before 2012 and even in 2000 nearly all university activity was face-to-face “chalk and talk”.
When it comes to our daily survival, the resiliency of global supply chains has remained impressive. A lot of press is made about travel and airline cancellations and disruptions to manufacturing and trade. However, amazingly, supply chains have worked – even to the point where you can buy that desperately needed roll of toilet paper. Absent early panic buying, groceries have remained stocked, food supply operating and, most importantly, have very quickly adjusted in ways that allow basic necessities to be supplied in lieu of fewer less necessary commodities or more product variety. Food delivery systems allow for better quarantining while even five years ago such systems were barely used. Nothing like the generalized Uber Eats existed even 10 years ago and even three years ago only around 30% of US chains had online delivery.
Even when it comes to remaining sane at home, there is Netflix (which only started streaming in 2007), Hulu (founded in 2007), and any variety of other forms of entertainment. The ubiquity of videoconferencing technologies like Zoom (founded in 2011) allow for virtual happy hours, virtual family gatherings (keeping the grandparents safe), and even virtual meals. The irony is that usually people today go out for a meal or drink and spend most of their time looking at their phones rather than the people they are out with. Because they now have to look at a screen to see the people they are socializing with, they actually may end up talking to them more than they do when they were going out physically.
Even governments and companies have learned their lessons from past crises, creating more resilient and responsive systems. The 9-11 terrorist attacks have highlighted the need for government monitoring of border activities and travel. The 2002-2003 SARS epidemic led to more resilient systems related to quarantining and control of transmission across borders. The 2008 financial crisis brought to fore the limitations of government policy with respect to generating liquidity in markets. While governments and companies might be criticized for their responses to COVID-19, the reality is that their response is better because of past crises. Government bailouts are focusing much more on individuals rather than corporations, as witnessed by the UK Chancellor’s willingness to subsidize worker’s salaries. Where governments have addressed corporate needs, there is less willingness for direct bailouts. But given the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis, this may be less necessary as major corporations have far more cash than they did 10 years ago (although, unfortunately, they have been lowering those holdings in the last two years).
Finally, while there are legitimate concerns about the rise of the surveillance state, technology today has allowed for very close to real time tracking of infections. Information can be pushed out via mobile systems (such as WhatsApp – founded in 2009), individuals can be monitored for their movement by their mobile phones, drones can engage in enforcement, and health officials can very quickly identify clusters of infections and track the network of individuals who may have passed through that cluster. In places like Hong Kong, the density of the population has been countered by this ability to monitor, so that officials can identify cases and inform those living in the area if they are in danger of infection (e.g., via electronic wristbands). In the UK (and soon the US) an app allows individuals to self-report symptoms, providing better tracking of the location of potential cases. (https://covid.joinzoe.com/). None of this would have been possible even a decade ago.
So, as you are in self quarantine and probably going a bit stir crazy. Just remember: It could be worse had the pandemic occurred even 5-10 years earlier. It could be worse economically had not the rapid rise of technology in the last decade has made it possible to think about working differently and responding better. It could be worse socially as we can now keep ourselves and others safe while still being part of a community. It could be worse in terms of health and safety as we are better able to track and monitor the infections. And it could be worse politically, had not corporate and political leaders learned the lessons of the past.
NOTE: A later variant of this article appears in The Conversation: https://theconversation.com/whatever-the-hardships-of-covid-19-lets-be-thankful-it-wasnt-covid-99-136649
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